Uganda’s economic growth outlook for the next financial years has been outlined by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, with government projecting accelerated expansion as the country positions itself for upper middle-income status. This was revealed during a briefing of the Budget Committee of Parliament on the National Budget Framework Paper for FY 2026/27 and the Budget Framework Papers for Vote 008 and Vote 130.
While addressing legislators, the State Minister for Finance in charge of General Duties, Henry Musasizi, said Uganda is entering a defining phase in its economic transformation. He noted that the country is at its most promising economic inflection point, emphasizing that financial year 2026/27 presents a critical opportunity to fast-track a qualitative leap to upper middle-income status. The minister was accompanied by the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, Dr. Ramathan Ggoobi, during the presentation.
Musasizi told Parliament that Uganda’s economy continues to show resilience and steady growth despite global and regional challenges. He reported that the country registered a GDP growth rate of 6.3 percent in FY 2024/25, while growth for the current FY 2025/26 is projected to range between 6.5 and 7.0 percent. Looking ahead, government forecasts that economic growth will accelerate sharply, with projections indicating a growth rate of 10.4 percent in FY 2026/27. This expansion is expected to increase the size of Uganda’s economy to Shs 290.2 trillion, equivalent to USD 76.7 billion.
According to the minister, government’s fiscal and development strategy will be firmly anchored on long-term growth ambitions aligned with the Fourth National Development Plan. “The budget for next financial year will be guided by the aspiration to expand the size of the economy tenfold before 2040, starting by doubling GDP every five years as programmed under the NDPIV. This policy direction will be implemented through sustained investments in the ATMS and enablers,” said the Minister.
Musasizi also highlighted key governance and public finance management issues that government intends to address in the coming financial year. Among the critical unfinished business include stamping out budget games that breed corruption, closing leakages in routine expenditures such as transfers to schools, health centres and the public payroll, improving liquidity and cash management, strengthening Uganda’s sovereign credit ratings, and diversifying sources of development finance by tapping into innovative financing mechanisms.
On the fiscal outlook, the minister disclosed that the preliminary resource envelope for FY 2026/27 is estimated at Shs 69.399 trillion, compared to Shs 72.376 trillion in the current FY 2025/26. He explained that the reduction reflects broader fiscal consolidation efforts and adjustments in revenue and financing projections.
Earlier in the day, Musasizi, alongside the Minister of State for Planning, Amos Lugoloobi, presented the Budget Framework Papers for Vote 008, which covers the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, and Vote 130, which relates to Treasury Operations, to the Finance Committee of Parliament. He informed lawmakers that the proposed budget allocation for the Ministry of Finance in FY 2026/27 stands at Shs 2,693.40 billion, down from Shs 2,796.77 billion in the current financial year, largely due to the overall reduction in the national resource envelope.
The minister further explained that Vote 130, Treasury Operations, has been allocated Shs 28,264.652 billion in FY 2026/27. He said these funds will be critical in ensuring timely processing of debt service payments, redemptions, and fulfillment of other statutory obligations, underscoring government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal discipline and safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
The briefing signals government’s intention to leverage disciplined budgeting, structural reforms, and strategic investments to accelerate growth, expand the economy, and strengthen Uganda’s position on a sustainable path toward upper middle-income status.
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